of us. i'd love to have him say it to my face. you want to attack people, at least be man enough to own it. >> iowa here we come. ♪ we begin today where else but iowa. now six short days away from the iowa caucuses, the candidates criss-crossing the hawkeye state. newt gingrich seems to have rediscovered some of the offensive firepower. and it might well have something to do with his slumping poll numbers. consider this attack on ron paul, the libertarian looking to steal a victory. >> what do you do if the choice were ron paul or barack obama? >> i think you'd have a hard choice -- >> it's really mit rom fle suddenly looking every bit inevitable that gingrich is going after right now. mitt delivered a zinger yesterday, comparing gingrich's

failure to make the virginia ballot to an episode of "i love lu lucy." >> i'll meet him anywhere in iowa for 90 minutes, just the two of us. i'd love to have him say that to my face. >> newt throwing down the gauntlet, baiting mitt into a dual, even challenging his manhood. you have to wrond çwonder whatd to keeping clean. the super pac has now dropped this love letter in the mail to iowa caucus goers. romney is the second most dangerous man in america. and will perpetuate obama's slide into financial crisis. don't let romney backers mislead you. chuck todd asked the candidate about the attack in iowa today. >> i wouldn't call him the second most dangerous man in america. i'm happy to publicly urge them to not repeat that line. if they have a factually

accurate mailing that says he's for this and for this and for this, i think the question is whether or not he's for it. i think being factually accurate and explaining someone's position is legitimate. it's when you're factually wrong or when you're factually distorting things, or you're taking something and sterning it into something that it isn't, it's wrong. >> you can find more of that interview on "nightly news" tonight at 6:30 p.m. eastern. that was a bit of a backhanded reputation for him. romney remains all smiles, soaking up the spotlight. big crowds and saving his attacks for president obama. front-runners tactics if there ever were one. let's get to our guests this afternoon. joy ann read, managing editor of thegrio.com and steve cornacki. we're hearing newt gingrich

perhaps making some apologies, he was making some mistakes saying it was dumb to sit down with nancy pelosi on a couchç r that advertisement we're so familiar with. he also said he was wrong about the health plan in massachusetts. what is he doing here? we're seeing this mea culpa moments, are they going to translate into any votes long term? >> i think that newt is realizing he's going to have to answer for some of his past positions. however, what newt is really good at is attacking. i'm not sure that being mr. nice guy necessarily works for him. tactically, what he's done well is to attack, and mitt romney is sitting comfortably at his 23%. he can't get beyond it. newt's problem is, that might be all that it needs. >> all he needs? >> and steve, you heard that reputation that we were alluding to by newt gingrich there. is this just a move here, as newt gingrich realizes he cannot go dollar for dollar with mitt romney, and, therefore, he's

trying to go negative to try to make up for that. is he going to lose either way here? >> he's in much worse shape in iowa. his numbers have fallen even more in iowa than across the country. he's in particularly rough shape in iowa. what i find interesting, you see that challenge he's putting out to mitt romney. the standard response the past two weeks is, hey, come meet me in a debate, 90 minutes, no mod rater all this business. i think the demise of the gingrich campaign is the key to his rise was the debates. huge audiences where he really stood out. and there has not been a debate on the republican side since december 15th. we'll go the final three weeks from that moment to the iowa caucuses without a debate. in a campaign that until that point had been defined by debates. we go from debates toç attacks. gingrich can't thrive there the way he was in the summer and

fall. >> it would have been a carnival, the idea -- it feeds into the republicans overall problem, which is, their primary looks like a circus, for a while, newt was thriving again, in the debates he could stand out, present a contrast with romney. they both have issue problems. right now, the money matters a lot, and newt doesn't really have it, to the extent that romney does, and that's the problem. >> as some have written. it's a bunch of clowns inside a car at the moment. to you, steve, which clown today has done the best? we're down to day to day. >> it's kind of amazing to me, the conventional wisdom that's sort of emerging right now, mitt romney's in really good position. >> for today? >> it's ironic, because we've spent all of 2011 saying romney is the weakest front-runner ever, but if he can put together a victory in iowa paf all this, then he rolls into new

hampshire. if his main competition is ron paul after that -- >> someone who's getting hurt in the last 24 hours is ron paul. michele bachmann commented on that. and joanne, i want to play this for you and get your response. >> he'd have a lot of difficulty voting for him, ron paul won't be the nominee, i will be the nominee of our party. he won't win the nomination, i will. >> she's not the only one to say that they would not vote for ron paul if he were the nom flee. >> ron paul has always had a problem within the republican ç establishment. michele bachmann is part of the establishment. ron paul's foreign policy is very much against what the republican party has stood for, he's considered looney to them. if he wins, let's say the iowa caucuses and michelle doesn't get completely pushed out, you have so many people in it can only help romney. >> we're starting to see this get ugly, though, certainly. newt going negative, more words

of zany, crazy, circus. will this hurt the gop as we see all this infight something. >> i think it depends on how long it gets stretched out. if it's wrapped up in january, this whole process doesn't hurt him -- >> how likely is it? >> it's more likely now much you you have the situation where it's santorum, bachman, perry, gingrich, all going after the christian right voters. if they all get 10% of this thing, looks on paper that romney gets a big win. that's what needs to happen for him to get a challenge here. >> the evangelicals, let's not close the books yet. we have rick santorum who's gone up a couple spots in the polls recently. he has some new ads. his favorite ability rating by one measure has been the highest within the last week, so is he the possibility here that could cause a little bit of interest in the coming votes?

>> well, i mean, that is one of the problems in addition -- to consolidate that christian right vote, it's a bit savvy, they've been in this political game for a generation or more, they want someone who can win. rick santorum's problem is that heç appears not electable. that could keep him around, perry around. they're hunting for someone who's electable. and right now, santorum doesn't appear to be. >> you touched on one of the votes that are happening right here, when we look at this right now, this is a discussion you had yesterday with chris matthews, there are three votes going on right now, we have the evangelical vote being debated at the moment, the libertarian vote and the front-runners between mitt romney and newt. all of these coming together as we look forward to november 2012. does this show how difficult it is for the gop to come together and get behind one candidate? >> yeah.

the one you you have to look out for the most is the libertarian vote slash the ron paul vote. i think if romney wins the nomination, the christian right is with him in the fall because they really want to get obama out. the problem is, if ron paul does well, he wins iowa, gobbles up some delegates and says this party pushed me out, squeezed me out. i'm going third party, i'm running as an independent this fall. if he decides to do that, gets 5, 6, 7% as an independent, that's a problem for republicans. >> don't underestimate him too much. six days to go, as you know, no gop nominee has moved forward without winning south carolina. also no nominee winning south carolina has done so without winning either new hampshire or iowa. so is this why? as we take a look admit romney tieing up new hampshire, why iowa is so important right now? >> i think with the republican party as it is now, we witnessed the end of history.

nothing seems to be growing according to press dent. forç people who are not romney they need a win, the easiest get if you're an evangelical or a tea partier is iowa. in the long run for the nomination, iowa doesn't really matter. >> steve? >> i think the tradition will role of iowa is to win the field. we had eight people here, there are four that you really need to look at. the threat again is from the christian right standpoint, if there's nothing to differentiate santorum, bachmann even perry next week, it's a great situation for romney. >> thanks, appreciate your time as always. much more on the sprin to the iowa, coming up for you. i hope the speaker understands that was humor and i'm happy to tell my humorous anecdote to him face to face and look forward to seeing him.

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you just need to read the words debt ceilinging in a headline and think, not again. now the debt ceiling needs another face lift. commentators are scrambling again. but to quote public enemies chuck d., he says, don't believe the hype. it will take a santa sized miracle to prevent congress and the president from raising the roof. but at what cost? joining us to help explain why, john yarmouth of kentucky, a good day to you. >> hello, richard. how are you? >> very well. let's start with the issue on the debt ceiling.

this isn't a fight, right? because we already had an agreement about a bunch of months ago, explain what we're talking about right now? >> what we did last summer when we had the last fight over the debt ceiling, we needed about 2$2.1 trillion, that was what would beç projected to raise t debt ceiling to get us through the end of the calendar year, 2012. as part of that negotiation. the deal was, we would raise it in stages, the last one being $1.2 trillion, that comes up in february. so that's what we'll be debating now. the -- if the congress can disapprove of the increase, but president obama can veto the disapproval. we might go through this exercise, but as a practical matter, the debt ceiling is going to get raised. it has to be raised as it's been raised about 80 times over the last 30 years or so. >> normally routine. >> this has been very routine, and what's so disingenuous about

many of my colleagues on the other side of the aisle is, all but six republicans in the house voted for a budget that raises the national debt by $7 trillion over the next nine years. so you can't reconcile those two positions. >> let me throw something else into the stew. we have 2012, the pressure to get re-elected. will the house gop fight and bring up this question you just alluded to. and if the $1.2 billion is not enough, that could be another possibility, that you need more than that based on what has been happening in the economy. but will that re-election pressure change the entire die naj here? >> well, that's one of the reasons that everybody wanted to get past the election thinking this is what we would need according to the projections. i think this will be a slight debate, but again it will be over in february. i think what will be more important is it this ongoing debate about whether we cut spending right now, whether we ask people making over a million

dollars a çyear, to help finan that, maintain that level of spending so we cannot have a return to a recession. this is the fundamental debate that we had just before we broke when we were debating -- >> and congressman -- >> i'm sorry, richard. go ahead. >> that's 2011, and just to paint the picture for 2012, it could be a loot tougher. here's a few of what might be big fights. we have the full year extension of the payroll tax and unemployment insurance issue fp you're familiar with that from weeks ago. >> yeah, last week. defense spending cuts, based on the super committee's inability. we have the bush tax cuts, that's a big one. as we were just alluding to, the debt ceiling maybe. this really could be, if we look at 2012, a perfect storm, if you will, preand post election, regardless of when it does happen here. when you look at that situation, are we looking at the calm

before the storm that's about to hit? >> well, i think 2011 was certainly a calm before the storm. we're going to have in debate, it's going to be furious, there are going to be important questions raised. and all this against a backdrop which i think actually helps the president and helps democrats as well in this election cycle, because right now the public is aligned with the parties agenda. we know that the american people now think that the game is rigged, that there's too much economic and equity in the country. that the very wealthiest people need to help contribute to solving our long term financial issues. republicans have made it clear they don't want to do that. the lines haveç been drawn in way that these arguments, these debates will help reinforce the question of who's side is the president on, who's side will the republican nominees be on. and i think the narrative actually helps democrats this

year, and each one of these issues is basically a variation on that same thing. >> therefore, if the narrative is positive, good for democrats. are you positive or optimistic about 2012 despite all of these big things in front of you? >> i am. again, because the debates we're going to be having will all answer one question. or debate one question. are we for an economy that works for everybody or works for a very few and everyone else fend for themselves? and whether they're lucky or not, we don't have anything to do with that. i think the fact that there's 60 seats being held by republicans now that -- in districts that president obama carried in 2008 works to our advantage, there are a lot of incumbents that go down, as long as there are 25 fewer republicans re-elected than democrats, i think things will turn out well. >> congressman, you have you a great new year, thank you. >> you too, richard, thanks very much. ron paul's curious take on

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with less than a week to go until the iowa caucuses, ron paul continues to poll at or near the top of the field. this despite having to defend some controversial newsletters from years ago. paul has said racism is what lies at the heart of america's drug laws and those laws are designed to work against blacks, hispanics and asians claiming doctors wanted a monopoly on drugs and set about establishing one by criminalizing drugs after 1914. ryan grim is washington bureau chief for the washington post. he's the author of this is your country on úrugs. ryan, let me start with this.

where did congressman paul's view here on racism and drugs sit in context? are they radical? and is he right? >> well, there's kind of two ways to think about this. and the first is maybe the easiest, you can think about the consequences of the drug policy. if the consequences of a policy are obviously racist, then the policy itself continuing that policy is racist. and there's no question that the results of the drug policy are racist. you you know, you have a much -- disproportionate impact on blacks and hispanics than you do on whites. it's just -- there's just no way of squaring the numbers. so -- but the other way to do it, is to look at the actual history, which paul was referring to. and there you find that he was actually pretty close to the truth too. we can take what he said about the chinese, that we banned opium because chinese were

scapegoated and chinese were using. and if you look at the history that is more or less true. what he didn't mention but probably also knows is that opium was actually in use, and it was a middle class drug throughout the early 1800s. >> it was already here. >> well before the chinese were here. in 1850, the census recorded less than 1,000 people of asian descent here in the ugnited states. they only came here in the 1870s and '80s, that's when we started criminalizing opium. before that it was a respectablç thing. william delano roosevelt was himself an opium importer. >> there's a history to this that you outline in your article in how his supports for this may bring up question. i want to take us back a little bit to 1988, that's when ron paul made a campaign speech on in topic, while running for president as a libertarian.

let me have you listen to this first. >> we know that the blacks at times use heroin, opium and the laws have been used against them. there has been times that it's been recognized that the latin american jews use marijuana, the laws have been written against them. but the drug that inebriates most of the members of the congress has not been touched because they're over there drinking alcohol. >> what do these remarks do for ron paul, whether it's the general or the primary? >> it may blur things a little built for him, which can only be to his benefit. for the last week or so he's been getting hammered for having his name on newsletters that does have some genuinely derogatory and racist things about jews, african-americans, et cetera. if he can -- if that gets muddied at all, may redowned to his benefit. who knows, maybe there are some

closet racists out there who will ignore that part, listen to the earlier part and come out and vote for him. it's impossible to poll for that. nobody's going to be honest with a pollster about that. >> many want to quantify thatçn an absolute way. your article on ron paul just out yesterday. thank you so much. >> thank you you. a busy day in iowa means plenty of fun in today's top lines. >> all i'd say, mitt is, if you want to run a negative campaign and attack people, at least be man enough to own it. [ female announcer ] crest 3d white was recognized by marie claire as one of the 25 beauty products that will change your life because it whitens by removing up to 80% of surface stains. see how it can change your life. crest 3d white. life opens up when you do.

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>> what would they do if the choice were ron paul or barack obama. >> i think you'd have a very hard choice at that point. >> the what would you do? >> i don't know. >> gingrich and perry, too liberal on immigration. >> if you want to run a negative campaign, attack people, at least be man enough to own it. >> mitt romney made fun of you today. did you hear this? >> no. >> you you responded to newt gingrich comparing his inability to get on the virginia ballot to like pearl harver. you said, actually, it's more like lucille ball and what happened in the chocolate factory. >> he's comparing you to lucille ball. i love lucy. >> lucille ball in the chocolate factory, chocolates were coming out of the machine faster than she could stuff them in the boxes. it's a classic scene. >> you remember that scene? >> i have a simple message for mitt romney. i'll meet him anywhere in iowa,

for 90 minutes, just the two of us. i'd love to hear him say that to my face. >> i know he challenged you to a debating dual. >> i hope the speaker understands that was humor, and i'm happy to tell my humorous anecdote to him face to face. >> don't let theç liberal republican establishment picower candidate. newt gingrich. >> it seems contradictory to what you've been saying. >> no. >> let's get right to it, joining me now is fred barbash managing editor of cq weekly. frank, let's start with you. mitt romney seems confident as of late. but he's polling in third place. how much weight did these comments carry. with all the ads he has out is there, what do you think of his

latest moves? >> i think it's very hard when in the iowa caucus, in particular, as opposed to new hampshire where organization on the actual day of the caucus is so critical to project who's the front-runner and who's not the front-runner within a particular range. i mean, i think it's easy enough to say michele bachmann is not a front-runner. among the top two or three, it's difficult to make any kind of projection. >> sherry, mitt just wrapped up speaking in iowa, he was asked about spending cuts. i want you to listen to his comment. >> stop certain programs, stop them. close them, turn them off. even some you like. now, why do i say that? my test is, is a program so critical that it's worth borrowing money from china to pay for it? >> no. >> some things that you you might like, you say, i like the national endowment for the arts, doi. i like pbs. we sub sid dies pbs.

i'm going to haveç to say, pbs has to have advertisement. >> what do you think? is this going to help in the votes? >> yeah, it's a nice contrast to the president who's a big spendser. more importantly for mitt romney, this is going to appeal to some of the ron paul supporters who may be turned off these days by ron paul and especially some of the tactics of some of the other ron paul supporters. this is a common sense way -- >> even big bird? >> we don't want to kill off big bird. i think he probably explained it very well. we don't want to kill off big bird, so he doesn't sound like an extremist. he's talking in realistic terms about what we need to start doing. he doesn't sound crazy like ron paul. but he's talking about let's start shrinking the government a little bit. that's going to appeal to some of those people who are looking at ron paul. >> fred, let's move to you.

he could finish top three or four in iowa and still be in good shape. what do you think about that? >> i think that's true, depending on what the gap is. the problem with gingrich will be going into new hampshire. he has a long campaign to maintain, and he's got to keep from further plummeting in the polls. he's had one of the great falls of all time from his high to his low. apart from iowa, he's got to look down the road a little bit and see if he's going to be able to stop that decline in the polling, richard. >> and manage expectations along the way. >> i saw this last night. iç thought it was really interesting. you might have heard this as well, she had this to say to my colleague chris matthews on hardball last night. listen to this. >> here's the other thing. neither ron paul nor rick santorum really truly want to be president. i talk to beth of these guys and they both have said -- rick

santorum told me a year and a half ago, he was going to run because he wanted to move the field to the right. i asked ron paul if he actually wanted to be president, he said sure. these guys are both message candidates. >> if that's correct. that would be news. what do you think, is this possible? >> you know, it's amazing thatny would admit that. but god bless them for their honesty. it could be a function of rick santorum understanding he's not going to win the nomination, knowing he does have support out there, people agree with him, even if they agree with him on every single issue, he doesn't have the campaign in place to win. they may be supporting him early on just for that reason. the ron paul supporters are very different. it's music to the ears of many republicans if ron paul is saying he he's not really running, he can have an effect on some key issues that are more mainstream, but stop threatening a run to the third party candidate.

you would read that as good news for republicans as well. >> a flip side is with all that support for ron paul, he would go for the third party run taking that need to move the message. >> yes, i don't -- i agree with ron paul. he says he doesn't want to be president. ron paul has no expectation of being president, which is why he can say what heç does. when you don't have a prayer, you can say whatever comes to your mind and you're not going to lose anything. i think ron paul has gotten hooked on the cult that's behind him, and on the attention he's getting now, which is more than he's ever gotten. i don't see ron paul dropping out of this, i see him continuing as an independent in some way or another. what does he care what the republicans think of him. he's not going to be vptd, he's not going to be in the cabinet. this is ron paul's last stand. this is the end of the road. why not stretch it out as far as he can. he's clearly having a wonderful time. >> there's also 2016 fred.

>> yeah, he's getting up there. >> thank you both very much. have a good afternoon. >> thank you. >> the president less than a week from what promises to be his toughest year yet. once barack obama appealed to our better angels now he demonizes our fellow americans. ? hands that feel soft and silky smooth! ooh...she's got the look. what's her secret? the gloves? dawn? i don't believe it. [ male announcer ] it's a dishwashing sensation... dawn hand renewal with olay beauty. it contains revitalizing proteins to help smooth skin on hands -- improving their look and feel in just five uses. [ sponge ] soft, smooth... fabulous! you're quite the trendsetter. [ male announcer ] dawn does more... [ sponge ] so it's not a chore. [ male announcer ] it's easy to see what subaru owners care about. ♪ that's why we created the share the love event.

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president obama is riding another popularity wave in hawaii. a new poll ranks president obama as the most admired man in the world. let's go right now to kristen welker in hawaii, where she's been traveling with the president. kristen always great to see you. this is not the first time he's been ranked number one. beating out folks such as george w. bush, we have newt gingrich and the pope on the list with 17% of the votes right now. has he had any reaction to this

poll at all? >> no reaction yet from the white house, richard. but i can tell you that they're encouraged by some of these indicators they see entering into the new year, the one they're probably paying closer attention to are the president's approval ratings, which we've seen increase during the month of december. and just this monday, according to the latest gallop daily tracking poll, the president had his highest approval ratings he's had in fiveç months. one white house official telling me this is good news heading into the new year and into a tough re-election year. what's really driving this? well, possibly, you know, the president just won that victory in the payroll tax cut fight. the economy finally seems to be showing signs of life. of course, the one indicator, and the one number that the white house is going to be looking at most closely is the unemployment rate. right now at 8.6%. it's dropped bee lee 9% for the first time in months, so that's good news. but, of course, economists system watching what happens in

europe very closely, and economists saying, look, our economy is not yet healthy. so that is certainly the indicator that will mean the most when voters head to the polls next year. >> the attack on housing as well. that's also a big input to those indicators. could there be trouble in paradi paradise, could we expect it to be a big battle here? >> looks like we lost kristen welker's mike there, if we're able to get back to her later we will. coming up for you, tensions writes in the gulf as the u.s. warns iran not to threaten the world's oil supply. but first, tyler mathisen is here with the wrap. >> let's show you how stocks are doing right now. as we look at how the u.s. markets are doing. a negative day for the u.s.

markets here. down 128 points. some concerns about whether and when italy will be able to roll over some of its debt.ç the s&p 500 and nasdaq both down. better than a 1% slide. oil a little lower today as well. so is gold, as we get ready to round out this year in the markets. back to you all. çñ

the struggle and constrain of iran isç spilling into oil markets. iran's leaders are threat thing to close off the persian gulf, blocking up to 20% of the world's oil. this in response to sanctions that would be the first to try to block iran's oil exports. joining me now, brad sherman who has helped author some of the sanctions facing iran. a very good day to you, congressman. >> good day to you, richard.

>> the bill you sponsored addresses some of the concerns about iran's nuclear weapons program. how will this stop or slow iran's ability to build one if they haven't already. >> we're trying to put pressure on the iranian government. the most effective provision is the menendez/kirk amendment bill that the president will sign probably today or tomorrow, which will sanction the central bank of iran and several of iran's major banks and make it more difficult for iran to sell its oil. but iran will still produce oil. it will still sell oil. it will sell it at a bit of a discount and that will reduce the resources that iran has available for its nuclear weapons program. >> let's talk about that congressman. let's say the sanctions work to the efficacy that you describe. customers of iran stop buying the oil or at a lower point. have you countries like china that will buy on the black market or gray market. however they may get this.

you have the question of whether other oil producing countries can step up the production that's also part of this calculation, with all of this complex run of variables will it work? will you achieve what you're trying to do? >> i think the sanctions we have so far are not sufficient to bring that çpressure. we have to thank those who run iran, because their corruption and inefficiency has at least caused a bit of an economic chris miss iran, even though iran is able to sell its oil at the world price of roughly $100 a barrel. these sanctions if effective will reduce their revenue by 5, 6, 7% as they're forced to sell to china at a discount, perhaps working the fine transactions through chinese banks. it reduces the number of financial institutions they can deal with. it won't have the effect on world oil supplies that the

libyan thing did. that cult off a million and a half barrels a day, and the world adjusted to it, and the libyan oil is coming back online. >> i want to get to the map we just showed. iran is undertaking a ten-day military exercise, threatening to close this, the straits of hormuz. do they have the military might to do that? can they do that? >> i think the belgian navy could scare large oil tankers into not going through a particular strait. these are huge unarmed ships, and the slightest military pressure against them could sink them, so i -- i think iran could close those straits. they would then confront the u.s. fifth fleet, and -- and would confront our air power as well, so could iran interrept rupt? yes. could iran sustain that if the entire world justifiably viewed it as an act of war? >> could the u.s. stop them,

could they? look, i mean, blockade is an ability of war. it's not a decision not to do business like a sanction. it is you're literally shooting or threatening to shoot the -- the ships of other nations. iran is extremely vulnerable because, thank god, it does not have nuclear weapons, and if they were to wage war on the entire world, they would be in a vulnerable position. >> has iran though, by saber rattling right now, we've seen the oil prices hit over $100 right now. in effect when we see that happen, does iran know that they are challenging an already fragile u.s. economy that is limping along and, therefore, because of our dependance on oil, they are winning at least this small battle along the way? >> they got a buck and a half increase in the price of oil that lasted a day and a half. right now oil prices are back down to where they were before this announcement. i don't think that the markets took the threat all that

seriously. they fully adjusted. so i -- i don't think iran has -- has had an effect on the u.s. economy. they had the slightest and shortest of term effects on world oil markets. this is not the first time they have threatened to close those straits. >> right. >> it will not be the last time. >> it will not be the last time. we'll hear from them, no doubt, as they take a severe game brinksmanship there. >> congressman bradsherman, thank you. >> good to be with you. >> mo [ coughs ] what is this shorty? uh, tissues sir, i'm sick. you don't cough, you don't show defeat. give me your war face! raaah! [ male announcer ] halls. a pep talk in every drop.

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with the clock ticking down to the first voters actually casting the actual votes in the

republican nomination process we thought it would be time to bring in the political guns to see what the crystal balls are telling them. always great to see you, guys. >> hey, thanks, richard. >> thanks for having us. >> since 19will -- 1980, no republican has won a nomination without winning iowa or new hampshire. do you expect that to hold this time around as well? >> we'll see. since 1980 no republican has won the nomination without winning south carolina. haven't won south carolina without winning iowa or new hampshire so this time around that's why we see the focus in iowa the the way it is. we'll see if newt gingrich or ron paul. a lot of people don't expect that ron paul would win in south carolina, but if an anti-romney, you know, someone can coalesce a lot of that support in iowa, then suddenly all of a sudden people look to them in south carolina. look, south carolina voters want to vote for a winner so we'll

see what happens this time around. >> down to the home stretch here, mitt romney appears to be very confident after some initial panic over the rise of gingrich. what do you think? is this romney's nomination to lose and how well does he need to finish in iowa based on that? >> this has always been mitt romney's nomination to use, even when you found out some of the republicans like haley barbour, mitch daniels, chris christie, weren't going to win. he had organizational support, had done this before. rick perry was someone seen as a threat, but his campaign has foundered and really hasn't taken off since that one brief time up in the polls. as for as what we needs to do, the campaign has had one simple message. they just want to do well and move on. at the end of the day it's getting all the delegates that are necessary to capture the nomination, butç make no mista. they are making a very big play in iowa right now. the campaign is starting to ramp enup their tv advertising. key staffers moving to the hawkeye state and that pro

romney superpac has been running in iowa. they are doing everything they can to influence that contest, and they are playing to win. >> a big surge right now. earlier on for newt gingrich and now slipping in the polls, as you guys have been watching, but listen as he tells our own chuck todd that his real fortunes lie in south carolina. >> everyone who has won south carolina has been the nominee. >> that's a fact. >> that's right. >> so if you looked at where we first put our team -- our biggest team is in south carolina. >> and as you guys know, there will be much more of that interview of chuck todd's with newt gingrich on nbc "nightly news" with brian williams tonight. mark, let me get you right, is newt right to put all his eggs in the south carolina basket? >> we could have something where ron paul wins iowa and mitt romney wins in new hampshire and all of a sudden if newt gingrich is able to hold on and build his campaign infrastructure, start

running tv ads. he is from the south and could benefit but a lot depends on how iowa and new hampshire shake out. >> do you agree with that? >> yeah. look, newt gingrich of course he's going to say he needs to win in south carolina because it looks like his hopes are fading in iowa, so he wants to keep himself relevant to be able to stay in this race for the long haul, you know, maybe give donors something to think about, to back his candidacy so that he can go for the long haul with mitt romney because right now if he finishes, youç know, fourthr third or something like that in iowa, well, all of a sudden that's not where he was three weeks ago. he needs to give himself somewhere else to play. >> always great talking to you guys. thank you. >> thank you. >> all righty. thanks for watching. matt miller is in for dylan ratigan to take us forward. how is it going there, matt? >> hey, richard. got a fantastic hour ahead. we've got a serious economist, a comic economist, and the answer to a 50-year-old hitch hock mystery. show starts right now.